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European chart of the week: Lofty secondary loan market prices leave less room for upside in 2020

European Chart of the Week: 28th January 2020

European leveraged loans look set to post relatively lower returns in 2020, given there is now less upside in the secondary loanmarket following the recent run-up in prices which have pushed the par-plus share to 59% and the average bid to 98.67 for institutionalloans, leading buysiders to expect returns to be more dependent on ‘coupon clipping’ in 2020. 

The rally in the past 12 months leaves the market priced significantly higher than it was at this time last year when the late-year 2018 pull back left the average bid and par-plus share at 97.41 and 6%, respectively. Loans then went on to return 5.03%.

The current levels are more comparable to the price levels recorded two years ago in early 2018 when the average bid was at 99.13 and the par-plus share was at 58%. Here, loans returned a lower 0.51% for the year.


Colm (C.J.) Doherty Global Head of Primary Market Analysis Debtwire

Colm Doherty is Debtwire’s Global Head of Primary Market Analysis. He is responsible for leading the production of primary market analysis and reports focused on the leveraged loan and high yield bond markets. Prior to joining Debtwire, Colm was Director of Analysis at Thomson Reuters LPC covering leveraged loans, CLOs and high yield bonds.

Colm has a B.A. in Economics & Legal Science from National University of Ireland Galway and an MSc. in Accounting & Finance from Ulster University.

Colm (C.J.) Doherty Global Head of Primary Market Analysis Debtwire

Colm Doherty is Debtwire’s Global Head of Primary Market Analysis. He is responsible for leading the production of primary market analysis and reports focused on the leveraged loan and high yield bond markets. Prior to joining Debtwire, Colm was Director of Analysis at Thomson Reuters LPC covering leveraged loans, CLOs and high yield bonds.

Colm has a B.A. in Economics & Legal Science from National University of Ireland Galway and an MSc. in Accounting & Finance from Ulster University.

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