Debtwire Latin America Forum

10 on the Park
New York, NY
December 11, 2018
#DWLATAM
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  • Welcome to the Debtwire Latin America Forum

    • While news headlines focus on the historically low corporate default rate in Latin America, diligent investors realize various economic fundamentals could change things in an instant. Much attention has been devoted to the appreciating dollar, interest rates and slowing growth in China, all of which are bearish for Latin American corporates who borrow in dollars and rely on foreign demand for commodities. Can corporates evade restructuring by banking on growth and refinancing debt? Or, will liquidity dry up and leave cash-starved management teams with little choice?

      Please join the Debtwire team and esteemed panelists for discussion and debate about the restructuring environment and distressed debt opportunities throughout Latin America.

    • 08:30

      Registration and Breakfast

    • 08:55

      Welcome

      Ben  Miller
      Ben Miller
      Managing Editor- Latin America, Debtwire (moderator)
    • 09:00

      Keynote address: Will Brazil Lead Latin America’s Economic Recovery?

    • 09:15

      Restructuring Winners and Losers in Brazil's Uncertain Environment

      Brazil's fledgling economic recovery has saved many distressed borrowers, but a few high-profile restructurings continue to test Brazil's framework. Some, such as CSN, are managing liabilities and avoiding prolonged workouts, while Odebrecht and QGOG Constellation faced negotiations with bondholders. With the Lava Jato corruption investigations moving into the past, there may be other areas that could struggle as Brazil recovers.

      Delegates will have an opportunity to listen to panelists discuss Brazil's high-profile corporate restructurings.

      • What are the prospects for Brazil's bankruptcy code reform, and how might proceedings be different?
      • What is the outlook for QGOG Constellation and others struggling in the oil and gas sector?
      • Will Odebrecht be able to successfully reorganize itself and restructure debt at its construction business?
      • How does the political and economic outlook for 2019 influence Brazilian corporates? What are the next vulnerable sectors?
      • How will private credit entities and foreign lenders shape Brazil's economic recovery? What are the risks and opportunities for both debtors, lenders and investors?
      • What industries will return to growth regardless of the Presidential election results? What industries will be most sensitive to political turnover?
      Ben  Miller
      Ben Miller
      Managing Editor- Latin America, Debtwire (moderator)
    • 10:15

      Coffee Networking Break

    • 10:45

      Energy Restructurings Continue As Mexico Changes Leadership

      Lower Pemex day rates are still challenging O&G industry revenues in Mexico, as with ODH, which was engaging bondholders after struggling to meet interest payments. Peers Oro Negro and CP Latina are also facing debt restructurings. Meanwhile, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has won the presidency, after his candidacy has affected the peso and stoked investors’ fears.

      • Will AMLO’s governance match his rhetoric? Which borrowers are most vulnerable to political changes?
      • How will the new presidential administration and NAFTA negotiations weigh on new investments in the country? Which sectors are in danger?
      • While GDP growth continues upward around 1.5% and interest rates march higher will economic expansion and corporate restructuring efforts come under pressure from political change?
      • What terms will Oro Negro look to strike in its restructuring agreement after a non-negotiated bankruptcy filing?
      • Will CP Latina's direct address to bondholders prove a successful strategy? What can be expected from negotiations in near term?
      • What kind of progress can be expected between Offshore Drilling Holding and its bondholders in terms of negotiating a restructuring versus calling for an event of default?
      • What lessons can be learned from ICA's restructuring?
    • 12:00

      Lunch

    • 01:00

      Pressure Mounts in Argentina While Andean Co’s Brace for Headwinds

      Argentine central bank officials' decision to jack up short-term interest rates to 60% and seek help from the IMF sent a shockwave through the international investment community. Investors have sucked up government, provincial and corporate paper in the last two years – is there a wave of defaults on the way? Amid all the anxiety around a country that has defaulted eight times in the past 200 years, some investors remain optimistic that opportunities are there in energy and other sectors. Elsewhere in the Andes, Ecuador's new government is trying to get its fiscal situation in order while meeting hefty borrowing needs. Corporates in Colombia, Chile and Peru have fared better than in other places, but are not immune to the region's troubles.

      Delegates will have an opportunity to listen to panelists provide an outlook on Argentina with a focus on its risks and opportunities.

      • What sectors or companies could fall within to distress over the next year or so?
      • Is there a risk that Argentine politics could return to Kirchnerism or moderate Peronism?
      • What are the opportunities for credit investors following this wave of uncertainty?
      • How will Ecuador overcome its fiscal challenges? How long will investors continue buying government bonds?
      • What is the outlook for corporates in Chile, Peru and Colombia.
    • 02:00

      Is There Recovery in Venezuela?

      The default of Venezuelan sovereign and Petroleos de Venezuela (PdVSA) debt has presented a multi-billion-dollar challenge for investors. Intertwined with a complex economic and political situation, a debt restructuring could take years, if it happens at all. Investors are forming groups and planning their strategy, but it remains unclear what the government will do.

      Panelists will discuss and debate if a wave of restructuring will befall Venezuela and the greater Andean region.

      • What is the outcome for Venezuela’s economic and political situation, and what timeline are we looking at?
      • What would a restructuring look like, and what can investors expect to recover?
      • What will be the impact of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela's recovery efforts? Are U.S. assets in play?
      Daniel  Sensel
      Daniel Sensel
      Senior Analyst, Warlander Asset Management
    • 03:00

      Coffee Networking Break

    • 03:30

      Conclusion of Forum

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